Leisure travel distribution patterns of Germans: Insights for climate policy

Highlights

• Provides first analysis of leisure travel patterns of the German population.

• Reveals considerable differences between immobile and highly mobile travellers.

• Shows that small share of trips makes highly significant contribution to emissions.

• Shows that individual travellers contribute significantly more to emissions.

• Adds insight relevant for the design of efficient climate policies.

Abstract

Transport accounts for an estimated 23% of energy-related global CO₂ emissions, a large share of this for leisure and tourism purposes. Despite national and sector-specific pledges to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases, there are no consistent policies for the transport sector, which is characterized by continued strong growth. Against this background, this paper investigates holiday travel patterns of one of the most important tourism markets worldwide, Germany, based on data from annual travel surveys (‘Reiseanalyse’, with n = ∼7500). Data on trip numbers, transport modes and travel distances are evaluated, indicating that emissions of greenhouse gases related to holiday travel (including trips lasting 5 days and longer) are significant at an average 320 kg CO₂ per trip and person. Findings also show that the distribution of holiday travel emissions is highly skewed among the population and heavily depending on trip type. While about a quarter of the population does not participate in holiday travel at all, a small, highly mobile and wealthier share of travellers, 4% of the German population, engages in five or more holiday trips per year. These travellers are also more likely to participate in the most carbon-intense trips, long-haul flights and cruises, which generate 2 t CO₂ and more per trip. Findings are discussed in the context of national climate policy.

Introduction

Emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) totalled 49 ± 4.5 GtCO₂eq/yr in 2010. Transport is contributing 23% (6.7GtCO₂) of total energy-related CO₂ emissions (IPCC, 2014a). On global average, 72.1% of total direct emissions from transports are road-related, followed by aviation (10.6%), and international and coastal shipping (9.3%) (IPCC, 2014a). Aviation deserves special attention, however, because a considerable share of this transport subsector’s emissions are short-lived, and hence not comparable in terms of their global warming impact (Lee et al., 2009). In the future, emissions from transport are expected to grow, with the IPCC (2014a: 637) noting that without policy interventions, transport related CO₂ emissions could double by 2050, and triple by 2100. Most of this will come from aviation, with Boeing (2015) and Airbus (2015) anticipating growth in revenue passenger kilometres in the order of 4.9% per year. The International Energy Agency suggests that this may lead to a tripling of energy use for aviation by 2050 compared to 2005, and that the sector will by then account for 19% of all transport energy (IEA, 2009, high baseline scenario).

Emission growth in the transport sector is consequently in conflict with IPCC (2014a) conclusions that drastic reductions in emissions will be necessary in the short-term future if humanity is to stay within the ‘safe’ guardrail of a 2 °C global average temperature increase, compared to pre-industrial levels. To limit global warming to this level is the declared policy goal of 196 countries that are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , and has recently been strengthened to ‘well below 2 °C’ in the Paris Agreement of the 21st Convention of Parties (COP21) in December 2015. This translates into a global emissions budget from all anthropogenic sources of approximately 1000 GtC, of which some 65% have already been spent (IPCC, 2014a). Countries have made a range of unconditional and conditional pledges to limit GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 2016), but analysis indicates that current pledges will not be sufficient to meet the 2 °C objective (Reilly et al., 2015). Given current emission trajectories, it appears more likely that the CO₂ emission budget for staying within the 2 °C limit will be exhausted within 30 years (Friedlingstein et al., 2014). All economic sectors, including tourism and transport, will thus have to make contributions to emission reductions.

Within this broader context, there is evidence that contributions to transport emissions are highly skewed between countries and individuals (Brand and Boardman, 2008, Brand and Preston, 2010, Gössling et al., 2009a, Gössling et al., 2009b, Lassen et al., 2006, Schäfer et al., 2009). To better understand these interrelationships, and in particular the role of travel frequency (the number of trips per traveller per year) and trip energy intensity (as a measure for emissions associated with a single holiday), this paper analyses holiday travel patterns, which have received more limited attention in the literature. Focus is on Germany, one of the most important tourism markets worldwide, based on data from the national annual travel survey (“Reiseanalyse”). The purpose is to identify the most emission-intense leisure trips, as well as traveller segments making more significant contributions to climate change.