Leisure travel distribution patterns of Germans: Insights for climate policy
Introduction
Emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) totalled 49 ± 4.5 GtCO2eq/yr in 2010. Transport is contributing 23% (6.7GtCO2) of total energy-related CO2 emissions (IPCC, 2014a). On global average, 72.1% of total direct emissions from transports are road-related, followed by aviation (10.6%), and international and coastal shipping (9.3%) (IPCC, 2014a). Aviation deserves special attention, however, because a considerable share of this transport subsector’s emissions are short-lived, and hence not comparable in terms of their global warming impact (Lee et al., 2009). In the future, emissions from transport are expected to grow, with the IPCC (2014a: 637) noting that without policy interventions, transport related CO2 emissions could double by 2050, and triple by 2100. Most of this will come from aviation, with Boeing (2015) and Airbus (2015) anticipating growth in revenue passenger kilometres in the order of 4.9% per year. The International Energy Agency suggests that this may lead to a tripling of energy use for aviation by 2050 compared to 2005, and that the sector will by then account for 19% of all transport energy (IEA, 2009, high baseline scenario).
Emission growth in the transport sector is consequently in conflict with IPCC (2014a) conclusions that drastic reductions in emissions will be necessary in the short-term future if humanity is to stay within the ‘safe’ guardrail of a 2 °C global average temperature increase, compared to pre-industrial levels. To limit global warming to this level is the declared policy goal of 196 countries that are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , and has recently been strengthened to ‘well below 2 °C’ in the Paris Agreement of the 21st Convention of Parties (COP21) in December 2015. This translates into a global emissions budget from all anthropogenic sources of approximately 1000 GtC, of which some 65% have already been spent (IPCC, 2014a). Countries have made a range of unconditional and conditional pledges to limit GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 2016), but analysis indicates that current pledges will not be sufficient to meet the 2 °C objective (Reilly et al., 2015). Given current emission trajectories, it appears more likely that the CO2 emission budget for staying within the 2 °C limit will be exhausted within 30 years (Friedlingstein et al., 2014). All economic sectors, including tourism and transport, will thus have to make contributions to emission reductions.
Within this broader context, there is evidence that contributions to transport emissions are highly skewed between countries and individuals (Brand and Boardman, 2008, Brand and Preston, 2010, Gössling et al., 2009a, Gössling et al., 2009b, Lassen et al., 2006, Schäfer et al., 2009). To better understand these interrelationships, and in particular the role of travel frequency (the number of trips per traveller per year) and trip energy intensity (as a measure for emissions associated with a single holiday), this paper analyses holiday travel patterns, which have received more limited attention in the literature. Focus is on Germany, one of the most important tourism markets worldwide, based on data from the national annual travel survey (“Reiseanalyse”). The purpose is to identify the most emission-intense leisure trips, as well as traveller segments making more significant contributions to climate change.
Section snippets
Climate policy and passenger transport emissions
The IPCC suggests that by 2050, reductions in transport CO2 emissions in the order of 15–40% (against a 2010 baseline) could be achieved through a range of mitigation measures, including “fuel carbon and energy intensity improvements, infrastructure development, behavioural change and comprehensive policy implementation” (IPCC 2014b: 21). The design of “comprehensive” transport policies to significantly reduce emissions remains however unclear with regard to the focus of interventions
Method
To understand the distribution of emissions from holiday travel, data contained in the German ‘Reiseanalyse’ (“travel analysis”) was evaluated with a focus on travel frequencies, distances covered, and transport modes. Germany is the third largest nation in terms of tourism spending, and an important outbound market (UNWTO, 2015). ‘Reiseanalyse’ (RA) is a representative survey of the holiday travel behaviour of the German-speaking population that has been carried out since 1970. The survey is
Results
Table 2 shows the distribution of holiday travel intensities in the German-speaking population, expressed in the number of trips made by individuals in 2014. About a quarter of the population, the ‘non-mobiles’, did not participate in holiday travel at all. The largest group, ‘slightly mobiles’ (61%), participated in one holiday trip. ‘Fairly mobile’ travellers engaged in two holiday trips (13%). Finally, the ‘highly mobiles’ (4%, or 2.8 million people) engaged in 9.52 million trips,
Discussion
The main purpose of this paper was to analyse leisure travel patterns of the German population, and to derive insights for climate policy. A number of key insights emerge from the results. First of all, among the 7500 respondents, the greatest number of holiday trips was 12, and the maximum distance travelled 58,112 pkm. This is lower than the distances travelled by tourists in long-haul destinations such as Zanzibar (Gössling et al., 2006), where more mobile traveller populations may
Conclusions
This paper evaluated German leisure travel data for holidays lasting five days or longer, with the overall goal to derive insights for the design of climate policies. Results show that there are significant differences in holiday participation and the emissions caused by individual trips or travellers. On one side of the spectrum, 23% of the population do not participate in leisure travel at all, while a small share of the population (4%) engages in three or more holiday trips per year. These
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